Thursday, June 08, 2006

NEW ZARQAWI INFO

Dancing in the streets. Bill Roggio says it was likely the handiwork of Task Force 145. As expected.

Here’s what the scene looked like afterwards:

zarq-crash.jpg

The Times says there was enough left of him to identify facial features, fingerprints, and known scars on his body. Here’s hoping they go the Uday/Qusay route and release the autopsy photos.

Needless to say, there’ll be updates here throughout the day. In the meantime, here’s video of Bush’s announcement. Click the image to watch.

bush-zarq.jpg

It’s going to be a long day for Newsbusters.

I’m off to round-up reaction from the usual suspects. Confederate Yankee says the good folks at Democrats.com are celebrating — because now we can pull out and have it look kinda sorta like a victory. Send me any links you find of people questioning the timing, the stupider the better. Ten points if they tie it to Haditha, a thousand points if they tie it to the start of Yearly Kos.

Update: Greater unity through dead terrorists:

For Mr. Maliki, a Shiite, the killing of Mr. Zarqawi brought immediate political results in the form of parliamentary approval, immediately after the news conference, of Mr. Maliki’s nominees for the vacant security posts in the cabinet, the ministers of defense, interior and national security… The new ministers were named as Gen. Abdul Qadr Mohammed Jassim, a former general under Saddam Hussein who was jailed in 1994 and sentenced to seven years imprisonment, as minister of defense; Jawad Khadim Polani, a former air force engineering specialist under Mr. Hussein, as minister of the interior, responsible for the police; and Shirwan al-Waili as minister of national security.

Update: If you thought the revenge couldn’t get any sweeter, you were wrong. Remember this?

Link via SFPH, who’s also covering the “celebrations” at dKos. He missed this one, though. Thanks to Homemade Sin for that. Also this one, this one — and yet, oddly, this is the one that ends up on the frontpage. I wonder why.

There’s really no point trying to round up DU. The threads are coming fast and furious and most (but not all) are what you’d expect. Here’s a good one, though. Superficially off-topic but in the larger sense, right on point.

Update: Ahhhh, that’s the stuff.

Update: Debka says Al Qaeda has named Zarqawi’s successor.

Update: Turns out the military displayed a photo of Zarqawi’s corpse at the press conference. Confederate Yankee provides the screencap. Update: Yahoo News has a close-up here.

zman.jpg

Update: Al Jazeera interviews Zarqawi’s degenerate family. Everyone’s sad except for the ones who are happy he’s gone to heaven to be with the other martyrs. Update: The AJ obit writer searches for an adjective to describe the attacks carried out by Zarqawi’s men — and settles on “headline-grabbing.” Update: Al Qaeda’s celebrating the “joyous” news too.

Update: Heh:

bush-smiling.jpg

Update: Great photos over at Getty:

iraqis.jpg

Update: Fox says there’s a White House briefing at 10:15. NRO has quick-take reactions from a number of people, including Victor Davis Hanson.

Update: CNN wonders if that video was Zarqawi’s undoing.

Update: Richard Engel blogs the “uncontainable excitement” at the press conference for MSNBC. Reports of ululation!

Update: Ken Bigley’s brother hopes Zarqawi rots in hell. Nick Berg’s wretched, wretched father is sad that “another human being had to die.”

Update: The WH press conference is starting now. Fox says Bush was told the news yesterday afternoon. Tony Snow says that Bush was meeting with Congressmen from both parties at 3:30 yesterday afternoon about Iraq and Rep. Ray LaHood said things would be better if Zarqawi were taken out. Phone calls came in from Khalilzad and Rumsfeld over the next hour about a strike that might have taken out Zarqawi. Stephen Hadley briefed Bush about it, who said drily, “That would be a good thing.” By 9:30 last night it had been confirmed.

Bush spoke to Blair and Maliki this morning. The U.S. and Iraqi cabinets will be meeting via teleconference on Tuesday. Snow predicts recriminations from the jihadis in country.

Update: Here’s what he looked like before they cleaned him up:

zarq-dead.jpg

Update: Our friends in Palestine are keeping a stiff upper lip. Update: Richard Clarke isn’t impressed, either.

Update: The attack apparently took two weeks to plan — and it might have taken out as many as seven other jihadis.

ZARQAWI, ABDUL RAHMAN KILLED!!!!!

Yes, you read right. The AP’s Patrick Quinn is reporting that terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

“has been killed in a U.S. air raid north of Baghdad, Iraq’s prime minister said Thursday. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said al-Zarqawi was killed Wednesday evening along with seven aides.”
You should’ve seen the smiles on U.S. Ambassador Khalilzad’s and Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki’s faces as they announced the deaths. I’ll guarantee that this will be a major boost to President Bush’s approval ratings. People have been dispirited with news about the Haditha incident and a perceived lack of progress in Iraq. That perception should be discredited immediately by Zarqawi’s killing.

While continuing to monitor the press conference in Iraq on FNC,

Gen. George Casey said that, in addition to Zarqawi being killed in the airstrike, Sheikh Abdul Rahman was killed with him. The airstrike was on an “isolated safehouse approximately 8 km north of Baquba.”
Needless to say that killing both Zarqawi and Sheikh Abdul Rahman is a huge deal, even bigger than just getting Zarqawi. FNC’s Greg Palkot said that the killing of Zarqawi will change the dynamic in Iraq in that Zarqawi was able to recruit people all the way from Europe to come kill Americans. Palkot also noted that Zarqawi was far more ruthless than Zawahiri, being totally willing to kill fellow Muslims, including women and children.

UPDATE: Fox is reporting that the Iraqi Parliament has confirmed the Defense and Interior ministers. They haven’t given the names of those ministers confirmed.

UPDATE II: Here’s a Gen. Casey quote from an AFP article that’s significant:

“Tips and intelligence from Iraqi senior leaders from his network led forces to al-Zarqawi and some of his associates, who were conducting a meeting approximately eight kilometers (five miles) north of Baquba, when the air strike was launched.”

The significance of this can’t be underestimated. To have gotten the tip that led to Zarqawi’s death in the airstrikes from his inner circle can’t make whoever succeeds Zarqawi more than a bit nervous.

UPDATE III: Fox & Friends are interviewing Stephen Schwartz, author of “The Two Faces of Islam”. Schwartz is absolutely jubilant, citing the fact that the tip that triggered the airstrike came from Zarqawi’s inner circle. He’s saying that this is confirmation of what he’s been hearing that the Saudis are getting serious about fighting the GWOT. He also said that this tells him that the Iraqi people were putting alot of pressure on the terrorists. Schwartz said that this is definitely a major turning point. I hope so but I’ll wait to see if it turns out that way.

UPDATE IV: President Bush will deliver a statement on the killing of Zarqawi from the White House at 6:30am CT. Expect him to congratulate the Iraqi government on this & on the confirmation of their Defense & Interior Ministers. He’s also likely to thank the Jordanians for their help in pinpointing Zarqawi’s location.

UPDATE V: FNC’s Brett Baier is opining that, based on conversations that he’s had with senior defense officials, that they consider this a bigger get than bin Laden himself because Zarqawi is “more involved operationally.” WOW!!!

UPDATE VI: Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney is guessing that a Hellfire missile from a Predator drone is what they used to kill Zarqawi. He said, too, that Task Force 145 likely wasn’t too close to this ’safehouse’ because it might’ve tipped them off that something was about to happen.

ZARQAWI HAS BEEN KILLED

***scroll for updates...video of Iraqi PM announcement added...oil prices drop after announcement...the Kos crazies are at it already...scars and fingerprints used to identify Zarqawi body...dancing in the streets...Bush transcript...official CENTCOM press release...the Left acts like the Left...MSM spins...Nick Berg's dad bashes Bush...Task Force 145/Bill Roggio told you...1015am White House briefing coming up...Snow: "We have been crushing the opposition, but what happens is the opposition has been controlling the airwaves...as long as terrorists have isolated acts of violence that capture attention, they win...Zarqawi operation was not just a one-off operation...one of 17...Iraqis are cooperation..."***

zarqcorpse.jpg
Here he is. (Hat tip: Confederate Yankee)

zarqpic003.jpg
At last (graphic now up at FoxNews.com)

zarqpic002.jpg
Click to download video of announcement/applause. (WMV file.)

rubble.jpg
The scene of Zarqawi's elimination (Hat tip: Allah)

***

3:20 EDT: Ok, I think this is the 56th time this has been reported. But late night news bulletins are coming in about Zarqawi being killed in Iraq. Will update as info comes in.

Readers send word that ABC News reported the story early this morning. F/R thread here. Bloggers Freedom Folks and Mark Moore hearing the reports as well. MSNBC.com is headlining, but no story yet:

msnbzarq.jpg

330am EDT update. CNN Jamie McInytre in Iraq reports that military officials need "additional forensics" to confirm. Two Pentagon sources tell him they "believe" Zarqawi is dead.

Iraqi PM announcement expected.

First wire report:

Associated Press

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was expected to make an important announcement at a news conference in Baghdad on Thursday amid a report that al-Qaida in Iraq chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi may have been killed, his adviser said.

Al-Maliki adviser Adnan al-Kazimi told The Associated Press there was a report that al-Zarqawi may have been killed late Wednesday in Baghdad. He said he could not confirm the report.

He said al-Maliki was scheduled to shortly give a news conference along with the top U.S. general in Iraq, Gen. George Casey.

MSNBC now has story up:

Al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed overnight in an operation by U.S. Special Operations Forces, U.S. military officials told NBC News on Thursday.

ABC News reported that he was killed in a U.S. air attack on a house in Baghdad.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was expected to make an important announcement at a news conference in Baghdad on Thursday, one of his advisers said.

3:43 am EDT. News conference is being broadcast. Iraqi PM Nuri Al-Maliki announces:

"Zarqawi has been killed."

Applause breaks out.

US ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalizad:

"The death of Abu Musab al Zarqawi marks a great success for Iraq and the global War on Terror. We'd like to congratulate Gen. Casey, who has been here now for 700 days.

Gen. Casey: Full briefing at 3pm Iraq time to give full operational details. Hard to hear through the translation, but Gen. Casey mentioned an airstrike and Iraqi police being first on the scene.

Oak Leaf at Polipundit:

{So we now know that he was killed in a house north of Baghdad with seven associates, that were probably valued targets. The operation was run by US Special Operations Command involving air (rotary/fixed wing) and ground forces.}

***

The rundown at 430am EDT:

Pajamas Media
* Counterterrorism Blog * ABCNews * Reuters * CNN * AP

Iraqi blogger Omar at Iraq the Model rejoices.

950am update: Video of Bush announcement here.

Andy McCarthy
:

Hopefully, Zarqawi’s demise is a clarifying event in the United States—for the administration, the Congress, and—hope against hope—the media. This was the real American military in action, in all its effectiveness, doing what the American people sent it to do despite often impossibly difficult circumstances: namely, eliminate nondescript terrorists who strike in stealth then weave themselves back into the civilian population.

It is a mission our brave men and women—again, the real American military—perform brilliantly, day in and day out, despite lethal danger to themselves and immense pressure to perform flawlessly. Yet, what we hear about back home is Abu Ghraib. What we hear about is Haditha—as to which the anti-war champion of the current fifteen minutes, Congressman Jack Murtha, is poised to accord our Marines a lot less due process than he and other members are extending to their radioactive colleague, Rep. William Jefferson.

What we might want to remember from time to time is that ever since we unleashed our forces, no American city has had to bury thousands of its dead or gaze upon barren craters where skyscrapers once stood.

Let’s further pray that the administration heeds what is sure to be the very strong public approval of Zarqawi’s killing, apparently along with other terrorists, notwithstanding that it came in an air strike—i.e., an attack of the kind which always carries the risk of collateral casualties.

No one wants to see innocents harmed. But we are at war—something often noted but never quite remembered. Innocents are in peril, both here and in Iraq (and elsewhere) as long as jihadists thrive.

Austin Bay takes on the Kos-spiracists.

10:23 EDT update.

Tony Snow is recounting how National Security advisor Stephen Hadley, Rumsfeld, and President Bush, etc., were apprised of the news. When Bush told of strike and possible death of Zarqawi:

"That would be a good thing."

Snow continues: "This morning upon reaching Oval Office...645am...Bush spoke with Tony Blair...7am: spoke with Iraqi PM for 25 minutes..."

***

Previous:

April 29, 2006: Special forces target Zarqawi
April 25, 2006: Zarqawi tape
November 20, 2005: Dead or alive?
May 24, 2005: Zarqawi rumors floating

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

WHAT CAN CONSERVATIVES LEARN FROM THE BILBRAY VICTORY?

Brian Bilbray prevailed over Francine Busby in the race for control of California’s 50th congressional seat yesterday. Tony Perry and Rone Tempest at the Los Angeles Times provide some background :

Republican Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby to fill the final seven months of the term of disgraced ex-Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham in a race billed as a test of whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress from the GOP. In unofficial results released today, Bilbray, a former congressman, took 50% to Busby’s 45% in the keenly watched 50th Congressional District. An independent party candidate, who said both candidates were too liberal, got 4%. More than $10 million was spent in the race but the results were similar to well-worn patterns in the district, where Republicans hold a 14-percentage point edge in registration over Democrats. Busby’s percentage of the vote mirrors that of John Kerry in 2004, and Al Gore in 2000 in the district that includes the northern part of San Diego and several suburbs.

At 50 percent of the disctrict vote, Bilbray’s win didn’t really breach majority territory, and considering the high spending and attention the national parties devoted to the race, the results provide a decent window into the nature of the midterm electoral environment in the coming months. Adam Nagourney’s story today in the New York Times has more on the implications from the San Diego contest :

The intensity of the contest and the closeness of the result underscored the problems Republicans face in trying to keep control of Congress at a time when many Americans have expressed discontent with President Bush, Congress and the Republican Party. In a normal election year, this district would not even be near the playing field: Mr. Bush defeated John Kerry by 10 points here in 2004, and Republicans have a 44 percent to 29 percent edge over Democrats in voter registration. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent at least $5 million here to help Mr. Bilbray; Democrats spent about $2 million backing Ms. Busby… From a national perspective, the outcome suggests the extent to which immigration could be a critical issue in some contests — in a way that could pose complications for Mr. Bush. Mr. Bilbray directly criticized the immigration program backed by Mr. Bush and the Senate because it includes measures that would allow some illegal immigrants to gain amnesty. He told CNN early this morning that his campaign turned around in this district near the Mexican border, after he specifically distanced himself from that immigration plan, instead calling for a tough enforcement measures that included building a fence on the California-Mexican border. “A president proposing amnesty was absolutely a big problem,” he said. “It was not until I was able to highlight the fact that I did not agree with my friends in the Senate or my friend in the White House on amnesty that you really began to see polls changing.” At the same time, Ms. Busby was hurt, aides to both parties said, when she was recorded on tape making remarks that made it appear as if she was encouraging illegal immigrants to vote for her illicitly. Ms. Busby denied that was what she meant, but those remarks in the final days of the campaign permitted Republicans to push the immigration issue even harder, at a time she was trying to turn the campaign on the issue of corruption.

At Real Clear Politics, John McIntyre evaluates his pre-election analysis of the national political significance of Francine Busby breaking the 45 percent threshold .

Had Busby materially fallen below the 44%-46% area, that would have been a bad omen for Democratic expectations this fall. Conversely, had she been able to pull off the upset it would have been a major signal that GOP control of the House was in serious jeopardy. Instead, the results are in that middling area where it is neither good nor bad for either party. Another way to look at the results, however, is that they actually reveal an enormous amount about what to expect this fall. And this is the message California-50 may be sending, don’t expect big change in November.

Often observers of this year’s electoral environment forget to factor in structural variables influencing House races, especially the incumbency effect and the impact of 2000’s redistricting. Jim VandeHei and Charles Babbington at the Washington Post have an interesting piece today on how technology is providing incumbents with another built-in advantage :

In Ohio’s 1st Congressional District , Republican incumbent Steve Chabot is running up against his toughest reelection challenge in years. But his Democratic opponent is running up against Chabot’s computer. In one of the lesser-known perks of power on Capitol Hill, lawmakers are using taxpayer-funded databases to cultivate constituents more attentively than ever. Chabot — a six-term legislator from Cincinnati who finds himself imperiled this year after years of easy races — has a list of e-mail addresses of people who are most interested in tax cuts. His office recently hit the send button on a personal message to alert them to the congressman’s support for extending tax breaks on dividends and capital gains. Chabot’s computer is one factor to keep in mind when assessing the odds that Republicans will get evicted this November from their 12-year majority in the House.

Anti-incumbent sentiment, as measured by polls and voter interviews, is stronger than it has been in years. But so, too, are certain structural advantages that overwhelmingly favor incumbents. Some are well known, such as the superior ability of incumbents to raise campaign funds and the fact that most lawmakers come from districts that have been carefully drawn to favor one party. Other benefits — including the ways that lawmakers are using the latest “micro-targeting” techniques in their official communications — are more obscure, virtually unheralded beyond the people who use them. “A major reason fewer incumbents lose is we have perfected the use of information technology,” said Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.). “As incumbents, we have unlimited access to the most up-to-date technology in the world” free of charge, he said. One way to think of this midterm election year, analysts say, is a collision between a wave and a wall. The wave overwhelmingly favors Democrats: an unpopular war in Iraq, job approval ratings for President Bush at record lows , corruption scandals that have engulfed GOP congressional leaders, and polls showing voters favoring Democrats and their positions on the issues by distinct margins. But Republicans still benefit from the wall: a long-term trend that for years has led to steadily fewer competitive districts.

—

Submitted by Donald Douglas, Associate Professor of Political Science at Long Beach City College, in Long Beach, California. Douglas earned his M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California at Santa Barbara, and B.A. in Political Science from Fresno State University. He blogs at Burkean Reflections.

MORE ON THE PARTY OF CORRUPTION

More On Jefferson's Corruption

As the voters in CA-50 put the corruption of Randy Cunningham behind them, the voters of William Jefferson's district got more information on his sellout. The New York Times reports that the FBI has acquired documentary evidence of bribery regarding Jefferson's efforts on behalf of a foreign power, albeit in a strange reversal:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation raided the Maryland home of the vice president of Nigeria last summer in search of bribe money that the bureau believed had been paid to him by Representative William Jefferson, according to documents released on Tuesday.

The documents included an affidavit signed by an F.B.I. agent who said that the Nigerian vice president, Atiku Abubakar, now a candidate for president of that oil-rich West African nation, asked for at least half of the profits of a technology company controlled by Mr. Jefferson that was seeking to do business in Nigeria.

About the same time last year, the documents said, Mr. Jefferson told colleagues of his plans to bribe Nigerian officials, including Mr. Abubakar, in exchange for their help in winning business in Nigeria, and that Mr. Abubakar would be paid as much as $500,000 in cash.

The F.B.I. affidavit, which was dated Aug. 2, and other documents were made public over the objections of Mr. Jefferson, a Louisiana Democrat who is the target of a wide-ranging corruption investigation. He has denied wrongdoing and has said the information in the court papers would unfairly damage his reputation.

In the affidavit, an F.B.I. agent, Edward S. Cooper, said cellphone records suggested that Mr. Jefferson visited a home owned by Mr. Abubakar and his wife in Potomac, Md., an affluent suburb of Washington, around midnight last July 31 with the intention of delivering money to the Nigerian leader while he was on a visit to the United States. The next day, the F.B.I. said, Mr. Jefferson told a confidential informant that he had delivered "African art" — which the agent described as code for a cash payment — and that Mr. Abubakar "was very pleased."

The value of art lies in the eyes of its beholder -- well, at least that's usually the case. Jefferson apparently has a different idea of art, perhaps one could say a more modern view of it.

Seriously, this opens an entirely new dimension to the case against Jefferson. Using his seat to influence and be influenced by foreign powers borders on treason in a strict legal sense. If the FBI can prove that Jefferson cast votes or introduced legislation intending on bolstering his personal business relationship with the Nigerians, the Democrats have a huge scandal on their hands. The Times writes that this documentation suggests Jefferson was "aggressive seeking to lobby officials in Nigeria and other West African nations", a mastery of understatement.

This stands in a completely different category of corruption altogether. The Democrats had better start cutting ties to Jefferson soon or risk having their biggest electoral strategy rendered null and void.

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

A SMEAR YOU CAN'T TAKE BACK

The London Times is getting praise for issuing an apology over falsely captioning an April 2005 picture of fishermen executed at a Haditha, Iraq stadium by insurgents as depicting victims of Marines in the Nov. 19 incident still under investigation--which I reported over the weekend.

But some smears aren't so easy to take back--especially when the image is as searing and damning as the bloody image the Times wrongly attributed to our Marines. Despite the correction, the image has been burned into the public memory. Look at how Chicago Sun Times cartoonist Jack Higgins used that image, wrongly used by the London Times, in a cartoon published today (hat tip: reader Jim O'Toole and Webloggin):

higginssmear.jpg

Is Higgins aware that the image he relied on falsely attributed the terrorists' stadium executions of fishermen to the Nov. 19 incident involving our Marines?

Did he or his editors take any steps to ensure the accuracy of the image Higgins simulated to indict the Marines? Or will Higgins somehow argue that he is not implying that the Marines were the perpetrators of the atrocities in the stadium scene he copied from the AP photo?

Ask them:

E-mail letters@suntimes.com
Editorial page editor Steve Huntley: shuntley@suntimes.com
Publisher John Cruickshank: jcruickshank@suntimes.com

***

Refresher...

WRONG:

hadithawrong.jpg

RIGHT:

haditharight.jpg


***

Latest news: 21 Shia students shot dead in Iraq by masked terrorists.

Let's hope, for the Marines' sake, that the London Times photo editors check their captions twice before they publish any pictures from the scene.