Monday, October 30, 2006


One week to go until Election Day...and the outlook isn't any better for the GOP. The races may have tightened, but the outcome still stands to be the same: As things stand now, Nancy Pelosi is going to be your new speaker-elect, though it will be close.

This is not a victory the Democrats will have earned. It is a game the Republicans tried very hard to lose.

In the meantime, the anti-Bush, anti-Republican media campaign is in overdrive too....with the New York Times running stories about military funerals and CNN marking the 100th U.S. military death in Iraq this month. There is no doubt as to which party the media wants to run things inside the Beltway.

So what about the Republican base? Will they stay home in droves, as predicted, or are they going to wake up at the last minute and head to the polls? Are they going to vote for Democrats, just out of spite? Well, the usual...lies somewhere in the middle. Things will be tighter than predicted. If the election were held today, the consensus is that about 20 House races are in play, of which the Democrats need 15 to take over. They should get that easily.

Pay no attention to national polls about George Bush's approval rating or Republican vs. Democrat. All that matters is who registered, likely voters are going to vote for in those specific 20 districts. It's not about George Bush or Nancy Pelosi, but rather Joe Blow vs. Mary Smith. That's what it's all going to come down to.

As for the Senate? The Democrats are out of luck there. They don't seem likely to get the 6 seats they need to take over. The more plausible scenario there is 3 seats, giving the Republicans an even smaller majority...but still leave them in control. So now you're up to date.

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