ANALYSIS OF CALIFORNIA GOVERNORS RACE

IN 82 DAYS the people of California are going to vote for our next Governor. The winner will either be Arnold Schwarzenegger or Phil Angelides (no, the porn star Mary Carey won’t get 161,000 signatures to get on the ballot). At the end of the day, Governor Schwarzenegger will win by 7 to 10 points. Due to lack of strong energy for either candidate, lack of over riding issues–even with massive bonds on the ballot–distrust of both candidates, from the middle and the right–the turnout could be as low as 40%–in 2002 it was 49.6%. Part of the turnout problem is that if Angelides tanks, as I believe he will about three weeks out, the left will join the hard right in not going to the polls. This will make the mushy-middle a larger portion of the voters, giving Arnold an even bigger victory.

Of course the GOP position on illegal aliens and the massive bond proposals will also have an affect on the voter turnout. If the GOP looks like it is confused or supportive on the amnesty question, that will lower turnout. If the GOP appears, as a body, to be supporting $42 billion in bonds, that will make California Republicans look like the out of control D.C. GOP’ers on spending–again, lowering turnout. Still Angelides has no traction, no theme, no reason (other than to raise taxes) to be Governor and the voters will see that.

There are three reasons Arnold should win in November:

1. We don’t want to punish our children or businesses
2. We want less government, not more. Angelides guarantees significantly larger government
3. It benefits Republicans to re-elect Governor Schwarzenegger

First reason to re-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger is so we don’t punish our children and businesses.

A few weeks ago in Warwick, Rhode Island I heard one of the great conservative strategists in this nation give a 30 minute, off the cuff speech on how to vote in November. Rod Martin of Florida is a true leader and thinker. A solid conservative, no one questions his credentials. Rod is a leading member of the NFRA and the CNP. I have known him for about ten years and know him to have only the good of America in his heart.

His speech was on a national level, why we should support all Republican candidates on the ballot. Rod went over the litany of transgressions in D.C.–over spending, the Bush promotion of amnesty for illegal aliens, the out of control earmarks, and he went on and on. Yet, through all that, Rod Martin said, “We should not punish our children”. He made the case that the Democrats would stop the effective War on Terror of President Bush, taxes would go up and the morale of the military would return to the dismal days of Clinton. This would, as he says, punish our children since it will take years to correct the bad policies. He reminded us that we still haven’t rolled back the incompetent and corrupt “War On Poverty” by LBJ. The minority community is still being punished by that Democrat administration three decades ago.

The bottom line, he said, is that you can be mad at Bush and the D.C. Republicans, but don’t punish your businesses or children with something we know will be worse.

In the same way, while only 50% of judicial appointments by the Governor are Republicans, that is still 50% more than Angelides would appoint. Phil has promised to raise taxes, Arnold has vetoed tax increases.
Phil would sign a bill granting illegal aliens drivers licenses, Arnold has said NO to Gil Cedillo on this subject. Though he lost the Special Election last year, at least he tried–more than others have done. Yes, many of his Commission appointments are Democrats, but many are also Republicans. Angelides would only appoint Democrats, that we know. Arnold did campaign for George Bush, while PA actively worked for Kerry.

The policies of Angelides would absolutely harm the economy of California, while the Governor is trying to stop those harmful policies. On cultural issues, we can at least speak to the Governor and his staff, PA would make California the hedonist capital of our nation. Only traditional families and moral values would be opposed by a Governor Angelides.

The second reason to re-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger is because we want less government, not more. Angelides guarantees significantly larger government.

Though Arnold has proposed numerous big government programs, they are molehills compared to what PA would do, including a plan for universal health care that would bankrupt small business (watch for the recession of jobs that is about to hit San Francisco, due to Mayor Newsom’s massive tax increase–that what a mandatory program is, a tax increase–for his universal health care program), and cause many businesses to leave the State. We know that the Governor has worked hard to veto job killer bills, prevent tax increases and to create business opportunities in the State. PA is a front for the unions that have created a $100 billion unfunded pension liability and over $70 billion in unfunded healthcare liabilities in California governments. How could he say no to them? Just as Gray Davis showed his real colors in 2003, PA would do even worse.

The Governor is a supporter of charter schools, PA believes in a government monopoly in education. He feels that all students should be held hostage by government. The governor has talked about the pension crisis of massive unfunded liabilities, PA’s supporters are the cause of it. Instead of fixing the situation as Arnold wants, Phil would raise employer “contributions” (taxes). Yes, both the Governor and PA supported stem cell research–Arnold because he wants cures and PA because he wants government control of drug research. Arnold respects corporations. Phil, except for his own wetland killing development company, prefers the state to decides priorities for businesses, hiring practices, quotas, who they can sell to or buy from.

Find an issue and Angelides wants government to make the decision. Arnold, does approve, most of the time, allowing those who invest and take financial risks to make the decisions. Arnold is a moderate toward government, while Angelides is a radical believer in government as the first resort. Even an aide to Feinstein was quoted as saying all Phil wants to do is raise taxes.

The third reason to re-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger is because that benefits Republicans

As a Republican, with a Republican governor we can get some things done, get some appointments and be a part of the discussion. Angelides would bring us back to the Jerry Brown days of only the most radical of thinkers will get heard. Under PA, we go back to the days of rose Bird and her “Supremes”. Do we really want to have to do another Recall of Justices? While the governor is appointing Democrats to the key commissions, we still get a few traditional GOP’ers on these commissions. Do you think Phil would be so ecumenical? We must have a governor that vetoes bad legislation–and in most cases Arnold has done that.

But, with a GOP governor we have opportunities to raise money for ballot measures, threaten to create ballot measures and to raise money for our candidates. Under Davis the business community gave almost exclusively to Davis and his hand picked candidates. At least with Arnold we have a shot at equality from business.

Primaries are for debate and division. General elections are for the Party to come together. We need a strong victory by Arnold to bring in the under ticket of McClintock, Poochigian, McPherson, Strickland, Parrish and Poizner. We need a strong showing by Arnold to help Senator Dick Mountjoy. We might even win a couple of legislative seats–won;t say which in a public forum, if Arnold wins big so, for political purposes we need the Governor to win re-election. The bigger the Arnold landslide the more statewide GOP nominees win, and we can get several more legislative seats. If Arnold wins big, the GOP wins big.

That does not mean that I, and others, won’t speak out on public policy issues when the Governor is going beyond GOP principles. But on November 7th I will be voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger for Governor.

MAJOR PREDICTION: Without hesitation or fear I will be wrong, guaranteed, in 2010 the Republican nominee against Barbara Boxer will be Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Will you vote for Arnold against Phil? Would you vote for Arnold against Boxer for Senate in 2010? How do you see this election ending the night of November 7th?

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Steve Frank is the publisher of California Political News and Views and a Senior Contributor to CaliforniaConservative.org. He is also a consultant currently working on gambling issues and advising other consultants on policy and coalition building.

Read more of his work here or at his blog.